Analysis on “Draws”

For full version of article on "Draws" click here.

 Rule of Thumb

To estimate at-the-table when you get next tile toward your hand the following Simplified Method might be applied.

1.      Find "Tiles-in-the-Wall" number (for instance, 83 for the start of the game).

2.      Find "Matching Tiles" number.

3.      By dividing "Tiles-in-the-Wall" onto Matching Tiles" you get number of:

This simplified formula is valid ROUGHLY for the "Level-of-Certainty" = 70% which is slightly lower than "Sure" level and much higher than "Luck" level. To increases "Level-of-Certainty" simply multiply estimate by 1.1, 1.2 or 1.3.

Small Examples on “Rule of Thumb”

1.      9 Knitted for 10-th tile: MT=28, 83/28=3 TURNS (Method="Draw");

2.      22222111 for a Pair: MT=9, 83/9=9 TURNS;

3.      22222111 for Pung, MT=10, 83/10=8 MOVES ("Full") etc.

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