# Analysis on
“Draws”

For full version of article on "Draws" click here.
### Rule
of Thumb

To
estimate
at-the-table when you get next tile toward your hand the following **Simplified
Method** might be applied.

1.
Find
"Tiles-in-the-Wall" number (for instance, 83 for the start of the
game).

2.
Find "Matching
Tiles" number.

3.
By dividing
"Tiles-in-the-Wall" onto Matching Tiles" you get number of:

- single
moves for "Buying Method" = "Full" (Pung, Mah-Jong);

- turns
for "Buying Method" = "Draw" (Knitted, Concealed);

- HALF
of single moves for "Buying Method" = "Chow" (Chow), since 2 moves you
watch at discards and 2 moves you can act during one turn.

This
simplified
formula is valid ROUGHLY for the "Level-of-Certainty" = **70%**
which is slightly lower than "Sure" level and much higher than
"Luck" level. To increases "Level-of-Certainty" simply
multiply estimate by 1.1, 1.2 or 1.3.

### Small Examples on “Rule
of Thumb”

1.
9 Knitted for
10-th tile:
MT=28, 83/28=3 __TURNS__ (Method="Draw");

2.
22222111 for a
Pair: MT=9,
83/9=9 __TURNS__;

3.
22222111 for
Pung, MT=10,
83/10=8 __MOVES__ ("Full") etc.